Friday, 17 March 2017

RIP AURUM (announces CSM to their friends. Two days before CCP Dev Blog)

Well it was almost a well kept secret. Yes, the  PLEX CHANGES ON THE WAY! Dev Blog was announced yesterday along with the accompanying video below:

This was preceded by a spike in PLEX prices so it's not unreasonable to suspect there was a leak. I am sure the very useful CSM (as they keep telling us) will be mounting a full investigation in order to justify your vote. They should have enough ISK by now to afford one. Hell, I will even help them start with this Jita PLEX price history:

OK, with that fantasy out of the way, what is the impact of this change? Firstly AURUM - the currency you buy things from the New Eden Store with is being abolished. Secondly, PLEX is going to be made more granular and will be able to be used in the same way AURUM currently is. So much simpler then and this is the line CCP are pushing. Anyone with 1000+ AURUM will have their balance converted into PLEX. Anyone with less than 1000 AURUM will lose it if they don't spend it.

This of course stinks for those impacted and this might be the majority of accounts. CCP's rationale is they don't want the market flooded with PLEX. Now there are a number of established ways you can avoid this. Just give players game time for example. But no, CCP has decided to tax the poorest accounts by 100% to subsidize the richer accounts by keeping the value of their PLEX stock up. A healthy reminder if I needed it on why I stopped playing Eve.

However, if you put the inequitable transition to one side, the change on a day to day basis is not that disruptive to the game. Like Skill Extractors, this is a stepping stone to some other change. Quite what that might be is unknown at the moment. Well I say that but you could ask the people who bought PLEX off the market a couple of days ago. They might have an idea. My tinfoil would be Beta, Delta clones and Weekly game passes but that is pure speculation but it is not unreasonable to think that Team Size Matters hunt for revenue generation continues unabated.

Longer term I think there is a problem. In the real world, debasing a currency doesn't end well. In this post Bretton Woods era currency is backed by a promise. The ability of a country to deliver on that promise helps determine the strength of the currency. The Venezuelan Bolivar is not strong and the country has an inflation rate of 62%. The Kuwaiti has inflation of 3% and has one of the strongest currencies. So when CCP shy's away from a (in game) currency undertaking or devalues its currencies in some way then at some point the trust in those currencies falls. And tinkering with the currencies is becoming a habit for CCP. 

The intrinsic value of PLEX isn't what it was two years ago. Back then a PLEX (or a sub) provided not only game time but the only way (ignoring the character bazaar) to get Skill Points. While you can still use game time to accrue Skill Points, it is not the only way to get them now. Skill Injectors and Alpha Clones can also do this. So if your need as a player is primarily Skill Points, then game time is not necessary. Consequently PLEX through CCP's actions has less intrinsic worth than it used to have.

Also, the liquidation of AURUM into PLEX is going to unleash a lot of locked up PLEX onto the market. A market is based on scarcity and PLEX is going to be less scarce. It is likely then that the Aurum you bought is going to be worth less in ISK than you thought once it is exchanged for PLEX.

Putting this altogether, the dilution of PLEX and CCP's willingness to cancel a promise of value and you have the prerequisites for  a significant PLEX price fall. Of course, CCP can always intervene in the market but there comes a point as in 2008 and real life quantitative easing where it ceases to work.

That point is determined by the final factor: player confidence in the currency. That is harder to determine. A diamond is just a bit of squished carbon but tell that to Mrs Kong. So I could be wrong. But if I was playing, I wouldn't be hoarding PLEX.  Afterall, can you think of a real life converged currency and which wasn't underwritten by a promise? I'm sure the Greeks can.

P.S. PLEX Vault? Carebear that I am I still fail to see the need for this. Pretty disappointing really.

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